‘Ard Boyz round one has come and gone. Let’s do some data mining!
I live in Australia (so now you all know, again) so don’t have to deal with the crazy shenanigans Games Workshop tries to pull (i.e. last year’s missions) with ‘Ard Boyz. A few authors from 3++ is the new black did go however and we did do quite a few army list reviews. I’m also a statistical nut so did some data mining to see what we could uncover. This year’s missions were a lot better but it appears turnout was quite a bit lower though this is based upon hearsay. 2500 points is a very different kettle of fish compared to the common 1750-2000 points played at tournaments. Many armies have issues scaling up to 2500, specifically older books with less options. Many individuals have little to no experience at 2500 points or don’t have an army for that level and have to cobble together an actual list at 2500. Remember, simply taking 1750-2000 armies up to 2500 doesn’t always work. Many 2000 point armies have near maxed out the Force Organisation Chart and thus need to be completely re-worked. When looking at said statistics, please keep this uniqueness in mind.
Quick note: this article is very similar to the one on 3++. The major difference being some subjective observations at the end and an increased sample size. Also, in case you don’t get it – yes these are flawed statistics beyond the issues one has in actually running analysis on wargames. This is mentioned and thus any conclusions drawn are not really conclusions, but observations.
I noticed a neat graph over at Danny Internet’s Bald and Screaming (he assures me the malware is gone) and got more data to expand it. I used the same initial source Danny used, the Dakka forums, as well as blogs and friends over in the States. Yes, I cross-checked data/stores to make sure I wasn’t counting things twice. Now, as we recall using tournaments as proof of an army doing well has a lot of issues. Messanger of Death has started looking at these for me but suffice to say there are just too many variables one cannot account for. This makes determining the validity of tournament results very difficult. Not only do we not always have all the match-up data but we don’t always know exact army lists, terrain (and what armies were matched up on what terrain), dice, player ability, personal factors such as fatigue, etc. TO rulings outside of the ruleset (they happen), number of people using certain armies, not to mention soft scores, battle points and so on.
Now this graph is only based on a certain sample of ‘Ard Boyz results and does not have the number of total armies represented. For all we know only seven Tau players could have showed up and all of them placed. Unlikely but a statistical possibility. We can make some assumptions though. For example:
|Danny Internet’s graph|
I’ve included both my (133 sample locations) and Danny’s (87 sample locations) graphs – his of course looks prettier. So what do we see?
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