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Warhammer 40K: Latest Win Rates Still Show Aeldari As Outliers

3 Minute Read
Nov 24 2023

There’s another batch of Win Rate data from the Metawatch. The Aeldari and Dhurkhari are the only real outliers from the Goldilocks Zone.

The latest Metawatch covered the winning list at the Warhammer 40,000 World Championships. It also released a new chart of Win Rate data for us to chew on. There’s also a nice discussion about the current state of the game to watch, too.

via Warhammer Community


“At the top with a win rate of 57% are the Craftworlders, who remain powerful after targeted changes in the previous Balance Dataslate – but not oppressively so. Their malevolent Drukhari cousins sit on 44% – lower than the Studio wants, but not by much.”

Aeldari Win Rate Outliers

As you can see from the chart above it’s the Aeldari that are outside of that sweet spot 45-55% win rate area. Funny enough, it’s at both ends of the spectrum as the Craftworlds are at the top and the Drukhari are at the bottom. At this point I’m sure folks are still wondering what can be done to squish them into the range GW is aiming for. The Craftworlds have already gotten quite a few points adjustments and a solid (and needed) nerf. While the Drukhari keep getting cheaper in the points department.

“Stu and the Studio aim to nudge these factions in the next points review and Balance Dataslate.”

I suppose when you’re that close to the target, a shaving off (or adding) a few more points to trouble units is the right call. And realistically, the rest of the chart looks healthy. But is that telling the whole story? That’s part of the grand debate about game balance with 40k. And GW knows that as well.


“Then, the plan is to focus on internal balance – for while most factions are in the Goldilocks Zone for win rates, some only have one or two really viable lists or playstyles. They plan changes that will expand datasheet diversity in the competitive scene, even as new Codexes bring new Detachments that support new ways to play.”

The fact that most of these armies only have “one or two really viable lists or playstyles” is a key call out. That’s probably due to the fact that the vast majority of these armies only have an Index to work out of currently. As the Codexes roll out, we’ll see the armies (hopefully) start to evolve into other viable options.

But that, of course, leads to shifts in the meta and thus changes in the win rate data overall. Right now, the game appears to be pretty balanced — at least with the armies all falling into that Goldilocks Zone. But the Age of the Index will slowly fall into a battle of the haves vs the have-nots. And then we’ll get to the final leg of codexes and have a full suite of 10th edition codexes.The Rules-Bloat will be real. Which means we’ll be looking for 11th edition. And the cycle starts anew…


With the Aeldari as outliers, what would you do to change them? It is a “rules thing” or a “points thing” at this time?


Author: Adam Harrison
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